“You are talking nonsense!” Participant Number 11 could not bear it any longer and said, “That’s not how the probability is calculated.”
“—So what?”
However, Delicious Wind Goose immediately raised his voice and threatened, “If you choose to vote me out now, it means that there will be a murderer with a ‘kill’ on the first night!”
He immediately moved the topic to another direction, no longer lingering with the previous probability problem.
Delicious Wind Goose said quickly and confidently as he moved the participants’ attention to another topic, “By then, you still can’t be sure who the killer is. The killer has achieved his goal as long as there are at least two deaths tonight. Thus, the situation will evolve into either one person being left out or three participants failing to achieve the killing quota.
“Unless it is the first scenario and your elimination votes are correct on the third and fourth days, only then can the killer be stopped. That’s because the third night will still return to the possibility of ‘being killed at any moment’.
“Why can’t we prevent the second scenario? That’s because the number of murderers on the second day exceeded three, equivalent to four people committing murder on the first day. Villagers can’t defend themselves. If you cannot identify the murderer, you won’t be able to satisfy the winning condition.
“In other words, the murderer faction will win as long as more than three people choose to kill tonight!”
Delicious Wind Goose added firmly, “When I told you about this, you knew this fact, and you knew that other people also knew this fact. Then this has become public knowledge among us.
“Thus, the ending has already been determined!”
—Time was up.
It just so happened that the designated period for everyone to speak openly had just ended.
Old Goose had calculated the time in his mind. His goal was to stop others from having the chance to speak.
His nonsense was illogical, but he believed his convincing inferences should mislead some people.
In the end, Delicious Wind Goose realized this was not a logical puzzle game.
Instead, it was a game to incite the others.
The point was not to find out the truth but to get others to act on his terms.
His speech was resounding and confident, and he gave out a lot of information.
Not many people could notice his logical error in a short period.
Considering the cost of explanation, if you couldn’t explain clearly to others, you could only choose to cooperate with others. Like the beginning of an irreversible chaotic war, those who realized the truth could only go with the flow.
It was impossible for everyone to choose the optimal strategy. Even if everyone decided on the optimal strategy, it was not necessarily the optimal decision as a whole.
After the four-minute public chat period, Delicious Wind Goose received a private chat immediately.
It was not Dove being labeled as Number 8, nor Anderson being labeled as Number 12.
Instead, it was Number 2. He was the real idol wizard.
He knew Old Goose was a fake Idol Wizard, but that did not affect the two of them killing people together.
They planned to pick a target. Then, they would kill the target, one after the other. In any case, they would both get a kill. It would be the same for the following night.
Later, Number 7 sent a private chat request as well. He also made a similar proposal to Old Goose.
When Number 2 sent a private chat invitation to Old Goose, Number 9, who had previously clashed with Dove, also sent a private chat to Dove to ally.
The only one who realized that Old Goose was bullshitting was Number 11. Although he was a step behind the others, he also reacted. Thus, he also expressed interest in joining an alliance with Anderson, the Number 12.
In an instant, the peace was over.
“…Done.” The corners of Annan’s mouth raised.
As for who the last “Wolf King” was, it did not matter anymore because he was destined to be born.
[TN: “Wolf King” refers to the person who kills twice in the ritual.]
Of course, Annan noticed there was an optimal solution to this game. That would be having everyone go through three rounds without doing anything. This would lead to the “peace ending”.
It was just like the “peace” that had been maintained previously.
But this required “collusion,” just like “peace” in reality.
So why would wars happen when everyone knew that “keeping the peace was good for everyone”?
A “peaceful state” could only be reached if everyone believed everyone else would maintain peace.
It was like the two companies did not issue vouchers and engage in price wars. This was the best situation collectively, and everyone could get better returns. But if someone started a price war first, the other party who did not do it would not survive.
This was what Delicious Wind Goose was going for.
As long as everyone realized that the possibility of others’ killing was opened, they would soon realize they would lose if they sat idle for three rounds. It was impossible to stop the killer without using skills. However, as long as skills were used, killing became easier.
Thus, they had to commit murder, at least getting two kills.
When all wizards did not use skills, everyone had to head out and kill randomly for three rounds. It was possible that the wolf king would also be killed. Thus, the wizard who had one kill must also keep killing, trying to get two kills before sticking to a defensive approach to secure their survival.
After the “peace” was broken, and everyone had an awareness of “what if others choose war”, everyone would participate in the never-ending “war”.
This stupid strategy, on the contrary, would be the Nash equilibrium [1] of this war game.
That was the best choice for everyone when other people’s strategies remained unchanged.
Whether others had been in peace or war, it would not go wrong after choosing war. But these “correct decisions” added up on each other and became a devastating mistake.
“So, this is war…” Annan took a deep breath.
He seemed to smell the stench of blood and gunpowder from this ritual.
No wonder…
No wonder this ritual can be established.
At first, Annan thought that this Wizard War Game was about Wizards who borrowed power from Mysterious Lady. After all, the final winner would become a wizard.
But it seemed that it probably borrowed power from “the War Deity”, Red Knight.
This ritual had touched the core Truth of the Red Knight very much.
Red Knight would give this ritual a generous reward.
“I don’t need to watch this anymore.” Annan sighed and turned off the live broadcast.
The ending was already set.
The players would have already won unless they were unlucky enough to die on the second and third nights.
With everyone being dragged into the mess, “surviving the war” was just a game of luck.
“Ike Searing-Fang must be a genius to come up with this ritual.” Longjing Tea was sharp.
Dove was also quick to respond.
Although Delicious Wind Goose was stunned for a while, he quickly adjusted his state.
In the end, he did not disappoint Annan.
The corners of Annan’s mouth rose slightly.
The players finally began to mature.