The video conference fell silent for a moment.
Hans asked: "Is there an accurate calculation method for this goal expectancy at present?"
Lu Yang shook his head: "This is a core algorithm, a commercial secret that requires top-level computers for computation, mainly done by computer with manual adjustments to some data. At present, no websites have developed it, and in fact, its commercial value is not very high."
"For big companies, it is useless. But for individuals and team scouts, this data is extremely important."
Simply put, this data is only suitable for a few people to possess.
If anyone could calculate it, the data would lose its advanced nature.
Maniero asked: "Normally, what should the goal expectancy value be for a player, or a team?"
Lu Yang said: "Before big data comes out, there’s no general concept of it. But it is certain that the most scientific state is when the goal expectancy value achieves a one-to-one ratio with the actual number of goals. This is much more precise than simply looking at the ratio of shots to goals."
"The goal expectancy value will also adjust its corresponding algorithm based on the number of goals in the Five Major Leagues. But this is a matter of the big data era, for now, we just need to consider sample comparisons within a small range."
"Let’s get back to Inzitens and Becher’s."
"This season, the goal expectancy value for Inzitens is 8. Cumulatively, his shooting goal rate should theoretically achieve eight goals. But in fact, we all know he scored eleven! His efficiency far exceeded everyone’s expectations."
"This is different from simply the number of shots; he scored too many Miracle Balls under extremely difficult circumstances. The defense In Serie A, up to now, is still at a leading level among top leagues."
"Similarly, although Becher’s has scored fifteen goals so far, his accumulated goal expectancy value has actually exceeded nineteen. His efficiency is not low, but far from as high as everyone thought."
"And if you take into account the level gap between Serie A and Serie B, Becher’s will never reach the level of Inzitens In Serie A. He won’t become a top star, at most, he only has the substitute level of a strong Serie A team’s forward line."
"In fact, Aguirre has only scored five goals this season, but his goal expectancy value is only eight. In terms of efficiency, he’s almost on par with Becher’s because he has two more assists than Becher’s."
"It’s ridiculous that Rome even wants to pursue Becher’s, thinking he will be much stronger than Aguirre In Serie A. In my view, it’s just swapping one high-level substitute for another high-level substitute... it is meaningless!"
Lu Yang’s analysis ended.
Everyone had their own thoughts.
Hans decided to discuss this further with Lu Yang at an appropriate time, proposing and popularizing the concept of goal expectancy value. It would definitely make him a defining figure in football media and might even be remembered in football history.
Of course, all this needs to be established based on the permission and further research of Lu Yang and people like Sotu and Maniero.
Rushing to propose a new theory wouldn’t earn Hans the status that matches it unless the theory can indeed withstand scrutiny.
Otherwise, thirty years later, if people say, "The first to propose goal expectancy value was Live Football Report’s Hans, but at the time, this theory didn’t attract attention," Hans would die in dejection.
Materialism tells us that if you can’t become famous while alive, posthumous fame is useless!
Likewise, this theory made Maniero’s eyes light up.
The so-called match-type players and clutch players have always been called metaphysical. Although accepted by football professionals, there’s a bit of subjectivity.
But now, goal expectancy value seems to provide some theoretical backing for these terms.
Why can a player be a match-type player and a clutch player?
Because the difficulty of his goals is vastly different from certain opportunistic players!
He can maintain a strong fighting spirit even in the toughest times, whereas opportunistic players, although commendable, often buckle under targeting because what they excel at isn’t high-difficulty scoring.
We can’t judge whether a player is strong based on goal difficulty because any kind of scoring method counts as one goal.
But if a team comprised entirely of opportunistic players, it wouldn’t be able to fight tough battles.
Similarly, a team full of players adept at scoring tough goals will have a limited attacking upper hand, difficult to achieve big scores, and often unstable against weaker teams, prone to upsets.
Breakthrough players, opportunistic players, core players, role 3D players are more apparent in basketball.
A role player who suddenly scores fifty points may be irreplaceable, but they can never replace a core player who can slam down fifteen key points during tense moments.
"And what about you?" Arthas brought up a point everyone cared about, "Lu, what is the relationship between your goal expectancy value and the number of goals?"
Lu Yang suddenly felt a bit shy.
Morici spoke enviously and jealously: "He has scored 22 goals so far in the league this season, yet his goal expectancy value is only 11! In terms of efficiency, he’s possibly the best in the Italian League."